The Philippines’ balance of payments (BOP) deficit surged to $3.14 billion in September, pushing the nine-month shortfall to $9.09 billion and dimming prospects of a full-year surplus as foreign exchange reserves fell below $100 billion.
The September deficit widened more than fivefold from $596 million in August, reversing an $82-million surplus a year earlier, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).
The cumulative deficit for January to September swelled from $5.32 billion a year earlier, reflecting a persistent trade gap and net foreign portfolio outflows.
Gross international reserves fell 5.1 percent to $99.49 billion from $104.85 billion in August, weighed down by the BSP’s foreign exchange operations, lower valuations of gold and other reserve assets, and government foreign debt payments.
Despite the decline, reserves remained sufficient to cover 6.2 months of imports and 3.1 times short-term external debt.
UnionBank chief economist Ruben Carlo Asuncion said the widening September deficit likely reflected higher import and debt-service payments, a larger trade gap and weaker capital flows amid global uncertainty.
With the nine-month deficit already at $9.09 billion, Asuncion said the likelihood of ending 2026 with a surplus was “extremely low,” raising the question of whether the full-year shortfall would exceed official projections.
He cautioned, however, that the deterioration did not signal fundamental weakness in the country’s external position, citing continued foreign exchange support from overseas Filipino remittances, business process outsourcing revenues and tourism receipts.
The BSP said government foreign borrowing, services receipts and foreign direct investment inflows also helped offset the trade deficit and portfolio outflows.
