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April 12, 2024

Economic crystal ball: BPI chief economist’s accurate 2023 GDP forecasts

Jun Neri, the chief economist of the Bank of the Philippines, has emerged as the foremost forecaster for GDP growth projections throughout all quarters of 2023.

Bienvenido S. Oplas Jr., a columnist for BusinessWorld, unveiled the findings of his thorough analysis of infographics and reports detailing quarterly GDP growth forecast polls for the entirety of 2023. The pool of forecasters comprised chief economists from various sectors including banking, consulting firms, and academia.

Participating organizations encompassed Bank of the Philippine Islands, Banco de Oro, China Banking Corp., ING Bank NV, Maybank Investment Banking Group, Philippine National Bank, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., Security Bank Corp., Standard Chartered Bank, Union Bank of the Philippines for banks; and ANZ Research, Capital Economics, HSBC Global Research, Moody’s Analytics, Nomura, Oikonomia Advisory & Research, Inc., Oxford Economics, Pantheon Macroeconomics, Ravelas (eManagement for Business, later Reyes Tacandong & Co.), S&P Global, Sunlife Investment Management & Trust Corp. for consulting and finance firms.

Academic institutions involved were the Asian Institute of Management, Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development, Colegio de San Juan de Letran Graduate School, De La Salle University, University of Asia and the Pacific, and the University of the Philippines School of Economics.

Neri’s forecasts proved most accurate, with three out of four predictions aligning with actual outcomes.

Conversely, Pantheon (with zero accurate forecasts out of four) and Oxford (with three out of four) exhibited the highest number of outlier projections.

Growth forecasts vs actual growth, and agriculture performance