Philippine home prices barely grew in the second quarter, but the headline number masked a striking divide: Metro Manila and condominium prices continued to climb while house prices and property values outside the capital fell.
Residential property prices nationwide rose just 0.4% from a year earlier in the April-to-June quarter, the weakest growth since the first quarter of 2019, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas.
The weakness came from outside the National Capital Region, where residential property prices fell 2.7%, the first year-on-year decline in the current Residential Property Price Index series.
Metro Manila went in the opposite direction, with residential prices rising 5.2%.
The split was just as stark depending on what buyers were purchasing.
Prices of houses, a category covering single-detached and attached homes, apartments, townhouses and duplexes, fell 4.1%.
Condominium prices, meanwhile, rose 6%, accelerating from a 4.6% increase in the previous quarter.
The numbers point to a two-speed Philippine property market rather than a broad-based decline.
Nationwide price growth has almost stalled, but Metro Manila and condominium prices are still appreciating at a relatively strong pace.
The weakness is showing up instead in houses and properties outside the capital.
The condo numbers are particularly notable given the years-long inventory overhang in Metro Manila.
Developers have been grappling with tens of thousands of unsold condominium units, prompting slower project launches, longer payment terms and other incentives to clear inventory.
Yet the BSP data show that the glut has not translated into an across-the-board decline in condominium prices. Prices captured by the central bank’s index actually accelerated in the second quarter.
The apparent contradiction partly reflects what the BSP index measures.
The Residential Property Price Index is based on residential properties financed through bank housing loans. It therefore does not necessarily capture every unit developers are trying to sell, cash transactions or discounts and incentives that may not show up directly in headline selling prices.
Higher borrowing costs are another pressure on the market, making mortgages more expensive for buyers and financing costlier for developers.
Taken together, the latest numbers suggest that the Philippine property slowdown is becoming increasingly uneven: condos up, houses down; Metro Manila up, provinces down.
The BSP monitors the index as one indicator of conditions in the country’s property and credit markets.
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FB and twitter blurb CONDO PRICES UP 6%. HOUSE PRICES DOWN 4.1%. 🏢🏠
Don’t let the headline number fool you.
Philippine home price growth nearly stalled at 0.4%, the weakest in seven years. But underneath it is a property market moving in opposite directions:
🏙️ Metro Manila: +5.2%
🌴 Outside Metro Manila: -2.7%
🏢 Condominiums: +6%
🏠 Houses: -4.1%
The surprise? Condo prices are still climbing despite Metro Manila’s years-long inventory glut.
The Philippine property market isn’t simply slowing. It’s splitting.
