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May 31, 2024

BSP expects September inflation to hit 6.1%

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has forecasted that the inflation rate for September may reach a four-month high of 6.1 percent, up from August’s actual rate of 5.3 percent, primarily due to increased gasoline and electricity costs, with the BSP citing fuel, electricity, and key agricultural commodities’ higher prices as the primary sources of upward price pressure.

This inflation prediction comes after four consecutive months of declining inflation until August, although it may still remain below six percent due to lower rice and meat prices, according to the BSP.

On the other hand, Security Bank Corp. chief economist Robert Dan Roces anticipates September inflation to range from 5.2 percent to 5.6 percent, lower than the BSP’s estimate, based on similar factors, including higher electricity and food costs.

Roces believes that despite this slight uptick, inflation is likely to decrease in the following months, driven by factors such as improved vegetable supply conditions, a better rice harvest season, and lower global rice prices.

The BSP maintains a “hold” position in monetary policy but has expressed a hawkish or tightening bias while inflation remains above target.