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September 28, 2022

ADB projects slower Phl growth this year than IMF

The Philippines is forecast to grow by 6 percent this year in terms of the gross domestic product (GDP) and faster to 6.3 percent by next year, the Manila-based Asian Development Bank said on Wednesday.

This compares with forecast economic expansion by the International Monetary Fund averaging higher to 6.3 percent.

In the ADB’s 2022 iteration of the Asia Development Outlook (ADO), developing countries in Asia which include the Philippines is forecast to grow 5.2 percent this year.
This continued output expansion should produce sufficient momentum to allow the various countries to grow by 5.3 percent next year, significantly down from 2020 growth averaging 6.9 percent.

According to the Manila-based Asian Development Bank (ADB), robust recovery in domestic demand and continued expansion in exports were to drive this year’s continued expansion.

It followed up the forecast with a warning that Russia’s war with Ukraine, the ongoing pandemic and the announced series of interest rate adjustments by the US Fed are upside risks to the region’s growth outlook.

The ADB said the Russia-Ukraine conflict constitutes the “most severe risk” to the growth outlook: “The war is already affecting economies in the region through sharp increases in prices for commodities such as oil, and has heightened instability in global financial markets. COVID-19 continues to impact many parts of developing Asia, with some economies experiencing new surges in cases.”

ADB chief economist Albert Park said noted that economies in the region are slowly getting their footing as the various countries emerge from the pandemic.

“However, geopolitical uncertainty and new COVID-19 outbreaks and virus variants could derail this momentum. Governments in the region will need to remain vigilant and prepared to take steps to counter these risks. That includes making sure as many people as possible are fully vaccinated against COVID-19. Monetary authorities should also continue to monitor their inflation situation closely and not fall behind the curve,” he said.

Apart from domestic demand recovery last year made possible by fewer mobility restrictions, heightened export volumes helped make growth possible, he said.

East Asia was seen to grow 4.7 percent this year and by 4.5 percent next year while South Asian countries were to grow 4.9 percent this year and 5.2 percent next year.

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